Global Tactical Allocation (It’s what we do for you!)

Our goal is to have a better return for you, our client, than you could get investing in the S&P 500 Index, by approximately +2 to +3%, AND take only 2/3 to 3/4 of the risk of the S&P 500 Index to get it. Our three year and five year numbers crush the S&P 500.

The Prism Grid investment program was established in 1996. What we do is analyze political, business, and economic events around the world. This helps us spot potential opportunities wherever they happen to be. Once we have determined the area of the world, the sector of that economy, and the asset class most opportune for profit, then the hard work begins!

The mutual fund market is so specialized at this point in history that virtually all asset classes have several, if not hundreds, of money managers concentrating in just that particular asset class, country, region, or index. We look at all the manager choices, compare them and their track records, using multiple judgment points, to pick the “Best in Category” based on our criteria and judgment.

The best managers in every category are “Rocket Scientists”. They are the best of the best. But… their advantage – specialization – is also their downfall! A good example of what I mean is Gold. The best money manager that specializes in Gold investments will make more than his peers when Gold is in “In Favor”. But Gold is not “In Favor” all the time. No asset class is “In Favor” all the time. All asset classes cycle in and out of favor. So even the

best manager in a specific asset class will have periods in time where they CAN NOT make a good return compared to the S&P 500 Index. This point is even more obvious when you hear that 85% of all money managers’ returns DO NOT beat the S&P 500 Index! The pundits, whose glass is half empty, say why try to beat it, just buy the Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund, and at least you will get the average return. But for those whose glass is half full, their view is that the 15% who do beat the S&P 500 Index, are worth trying to grab. Using the Symmetric Advisors Prism Grid three and five year net numbers comparison with the Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund, as of 12/31/2010, see what the difference can mean to your wallet:

Investment of $10,000 on 12/31:

 

Three Year Comparison
The Prism Grid The Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund
Date Amount Date Amount
12/31/2007 $                 10,000.00 12/31/2007 $                         10,000.00
12/31/2008 $                   7,155.00 12/31/2008 $                            6,298.00
12/31/2009 $                   9,737.24 12/31/2009 $                            7,966.34
12/31/2010 $                 10,858.97 12/31/2010 $                            9,154.12
Five Year Comparison
The Prism Grid The Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund
Date Amount Date Amount
12/31/2005 $                 10,000.00 12/31/2005 $                         10,000.00
12/31/2006 $                 13,020.00 12/31/2006 $                         11,564.00
12/31/2007 $                 14,263.41 12/31/2007 $                         12,187.30
12/31/2008 $                 10,205.47 12/31/2008 $                            7,675.56
12/31/2009 $                 13,888.62 12/31/2009 $                            9,708.82
12/31/2010 $                 15,488.59 12/31/2010 $                         11,156.40

 

That 15% breaks down into two distinct groups. One group is the current asset class winners that are “In Favor” at the moment. This is the group of managers we select our “Rocket Scientists” from. The other group includes US! The managers in this group are more regularly in the coveted 15% that beat the S&P 500 Index, because of how they invest. They do not specialize in any one asset class, or Region, or Country, or Index. They focus on whatever is currently making money, be it Gold, Chinese Stocks, Semiconductors, Apartment Complexes, you name it! These managers specialize in Global Tactical Allocation! Now this group gets broken down into two groups.

First, there are managers that pick individual stocks in the “In Favor” asset classes. They have to be specialists in every asset class in the world. No one’s that good! But even if they are not the best in every asset class, their ability to move, to surf, from one asset class to another usually keeps them ahead of the S&P 500 over any trailing three and five year period, see previous chart. Does this mean they are always ahead? No! It takes time to recognize that one wave is over and move to the next wave. Selling out of the old assets and buying the new assets is just busy work. Even with the need to change, the managers usually keep ahead of the S&P 500 over any trailing three and five year period, see previous chart.

Second, there are those managers who hire the “Rocket Scientists” in the “In Favor” asset classes. We are in this group. We believe that it is more efficient to hire and fire these “Rocket Scientists” in their various asset classes and get the added percentage return edge their expertise gives rather than trying to be the Jack-Of-All-Trades stock pickers the other group tries to be.

The gospel according to SAI: Those who CAN NOT COMPETE ON RETURN, cash in pocket, try to turn the focus, and COMPETE ON COST, cash out of pocket. Vanguard runs advertisements on TV constantly saying their funds cost less than virtually any of the competition. And they get all the people whose glass is half empty to invest! WE COMPETE ON RETURN! Wouldn’t you rather put more money in your pocket than less? Again, reference the previous chart.

On a different note, we have just entered into a contract with a national Broker/Dealer: Envestnet. This agreement allows Brokers and Registered Investment Advisors across the United States to access our Money Management Program, The Prism Grid. This is the next big step in the evolution of our Firm to a Nationally Known Morningstar 5 STAR Money Manager. Thank you to all our clients who helped make this possible over the 20 years we have been in business!

 

[1] The percentage changes constantly. The 85% number is representative.

 

[1] The other part of the 85 / 15% example

 

 

And now for the Rest of the World…

If you take all of the countries in the world and break them down into categories based on active stock markets / public corporations, you get four categories:

  1. The Developed Markets Countries (DMC)
  2. The Emerging Markets Countries (EMC)
  3. The Frontier Markets Countries (FMC)
  4. The “Lost” Countries (LC)

The DMC’s are the predictable ones: USA, Japan, Germany, France, and Britain being the primary, i.e. “biggest” members, measured by Gross Domestic Product, (GDP). GDP is the market value of all final goods and services made within the borders of a country in a year. These countries dominated the World in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. As the twentieth century was ending, there was the rise of the EMC’s. I have spoken of these counties in the past in the Symmetric Advisor, and you have made a lot of money in the Prism Grid from investing in them over the last several years. The primary EMC’s are the BRIC’s! Brazil, Russia, India, and China. They have very large populations:

  • China: 1.4 Billion
  • India: 1.15 Billion
  • Brazil: 200 Million
  • Russia: 142 Million
  • Total: 2.892 Billion

Wow! Compare them to the DMC’s…

  • USA: 306 Million
  • Japan: 127 Million
  • Germany: 82 Million
  • France: 65 Million
  • Britain: 61 Million
  • Total: 640 Million

Here is the major truth in WORLD ECONOMICS: THE CONSUMER DRIVES THE ENTIRE WORLD ECONOMY!

In the last two centuries, the “Middle Class” of consumers bought the bulk of the goods and services, i.e. drove the GDP of the DMC’s. Percentages vary, but the good guesstimate is 50% of the Population is defined as the “Middle Class”. Think how the WORLD evolved from 1800 to 2000. The middle class of the DMC’s were responsible for that! Put in 2010 population terms, that number would be 320 Million people in the DMC’s. For the 2000 to 2100 period, or the 21st Century, 50% of the EMC’s equals 1.446 Billion people. This is almost 500% GREATER THAN THE DMC’s!!!! 500% more middle class people will be powering the world economies from now on. 500% more competitors for all the finite worlds’ resources. The investment opportunities will be fantastic. The other two categories: The FMC’s and the Lost Countries, currently do not have risk parameters that make them good Prism Grid candidates, though the Private Pool, IIS Pool One, LLC, has benefited greatly last year and this year from the FMC’s!

I am explaining this because a common question from clients recently is “How can the Prism Grid make money if the US economy is doing so poorly?” The simple answer is that the majority of the money in the Prism Grid Program is not invested in companies that depend on the economy in the US to do well . Right now 80% of the Prism Grid is invested in companies that derive over 75% of the profit from NONUSA sources. Only our Real Estate investment derives almost 100% of its growth from US based companies specializing in US based investments, and through 11/04/2010 it has returns around +16% for the year for the Prism Grid investors.

Our primary drivers of profit in the Prism Grid in 2009 were:

  • Latin America: 128%
  • Natural Resources: 62%
  • Russia: 58%
  • China: 57%

Our combined average Prism Grid return for 2009 was 36.09%. This year it took the markets and the Prism Grid 9 months to digest the 2009 return. The Prism Grid, as you will see in the accompanying Quarterly Review of your accounts, only just broke even by the end of the 3rd Quarter. While you should all know by now, the crystal ball that sits in our conference room is cloudy all the time, but my guess on return through the end of 2010 is POSITIVE!

With 500% more “Middle Class” consumers in this century, and limited supplies of many things, there will always be an investment going up in value somewhere in the world. We will be buying some of “IT” and making you a decent profit on it.

For the trailing 5 years, ending 09/30/2010, the Prism grid average return per year was +7.55%. For our benchmark, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund, the average return per year for the same period was +.56%. There is a mathematical formula known as the “Rule of 72s”. Loosely, it states if you divide 72 by your return, the result is the number of years it will take for your money to double. 72 / 7.55 = 9.54 years. The other one: 72 / .56 = 128.57 years. The Prism Grid wins!!

I would like to thank all of the clients who have sent in NEW money or asked to have us consolidate their “Other” brokerage accounts into the Fidelity accounts recently. Our business of gathering assets under management is increasing nicely!

That’s All For Now Folks!

David Thompson
Managing Partner
Symmetric Advisors, Inc.

The Recovery is Happening… Except not here!

As I write this… the Indonesian Stock Market is up over 25% for the year, the Thai Stock Market is up over 17% YTD, the Turkish Stock Market is up over 15%. BUT… the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up less than 1% YTD. Now, more than ever, the search for the performing asset classes is critical to the performance of the Prism Grid Portfolio. As of June 30th, 2010, the best performing asset class in the USA stock arena was the Small Cap Stock, with only a -1.08% loss YTD. No prudent investor would ever put all their money in one asset class, except money market (when you have to hide from the world of investments). Only four of the TOP FIFTY worldwide asset categories are US based as of 7/27/2010. Two are Bond oriented: Long Term Governments and Long Term Corporates. The two that are Stock oriented are narrow asset categories: US Real Estate and Industrial Stocks. The Universe consists of 4,466 distinct asset categories worldwide. The ability to invest in any market or asset category in the world is constrained by the Security Exchange Commission (SEC). This Government division, that could not catch Bernie Madoff for over 25 years, could not see the Institutional Fraud resulting in the two biggest bankruptcies, Enron and WorldCom, before investors lost BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, could not police Fixed Income investments, i.e. Mortgage Collateralized Bonds, before they cost investors BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AND THE US TAXPAYER BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF BAILOUT MONEY, is in charge of determining (for a hefty fee) which investments worldwide YOU, the average investor, are “allowed” to invest in. Many great foreign money managers consider it not a good business decision to deal with the SEC, to get access to the US market. If you took the TOP 50 USA Oriented Mutual Funds, available in the USA, and the TOP 50 Foreign Oriented Mutual Funds, not available in the USA, and ranked them in one list by Year To Date (YTD) return, calculated daily through 7/28/2010, NONE of the USA funds is in the TOP 50!!!! The lowest return Foreign Fund, ranked number #50, has a return of 28.56%1, the highest return USA Fund had a return of 26.39%2. I highlight this to show you what the Government is Not doing for you… NOT allowing you to invest in even one of the TOP 50 Funds Worldwide. It makes it frustrating in the Money Management Business when you are blocked from areas of investment that are making money. You sure can not make very much money in CDs at the Banks, or Municipal Bonds, Government Bonds, or High Quality Corporate Bonds.

Now for something different: TAXES!!!

I have included an excellent summary of the TAX HIKES ready to go as of 1/1/2011. The hikes will hit every taxpayer!!!!!

The lowlights are:

  • The Lowest Tax Bracket is increased 50%!!!!
  • The Marriage Penalty – the plain fact that two income earners that are married pay more taxes than two income earners that are just living together – is reinstated.
  • The Capital Gains TAX will increase 33%!
  • The Tax on Dividends will go up 164%!

Now, here is what you should do… If you have an IRA, convert it to a ROTH IRA in 2010 to avoid the HIGHER TAXES. There is NO SITUATION that makes not doing this conversion cheaper for you. Call us now for the paperwork!

That’s All For Now Folks! I’m optimistic that I will have better news in the Third Quarter…

David Thompson
Managing Partner
Symmetric Advisors

1 The two lists, the TOP USA Mutual Funds and the TOP Foreign Mutual Funds, ranked by YTD return through 7/28/2010 were generated by Morningstar Direct
2 see footnote one

Great News -

We finished the first quarter of 2010 with our best first quarter in three years: +5.45%! And we had to shift gears a little to accommodate the new leaders. Your portfolio, as of Friday, April 23th, is back above the high water mark set 3rd QTR 2007! The Prism Equity Grid is currently beating the VANGUARD S&P500 INDEX FUND by over 7%, while taking 80% of the risk of the VANGUARD S&P500 INDEX FUND. And, our Prism Equity Grid has successfully beaten the VANGUARD S&P500 INDEX FUND for the past five years by 7-8%. This equates to more return for less risk.

Just look at our numbers compared to the Vanguard S&P500 Index Fund over the past five years*:

Prism Equity Grid        Vanguard S&P500 Index Fund         Percentage
Q1 2010                           5.45%                               5.35%                                      even
Trailing 4 QTRS               57.58%                             49.72%                                      +7%
Trailing 3 Years                3.38%                              -4.20%                                       +7%
Trailing 5 Years               10.39%                              1.84%                                        +8%
*As of 03/31/2010

More importantly, where does the market go from here? As the headline of the last Symmetric Advisor stated, “Up”! Why you ask? As sure as the sun rises in the morning and the grass is green, the economy and stock market always recover after a recession/bear market. Since 1929, recessions/bear markets have occurred 19 times1. The “world” has recovered from 100% of them! Recovery means ending up higher than before the fall.

Let’s separate this out –

  • What makes recessions end? Rising economic activity i.e. increases in Corporate Profits which eventually lead to increased employment.
  • What makes bear markets end? The optimism of those people and institutions, with cash to invest, leads to more of that cash going into the stock market and out of the bond market.
  • Why out of the bond market and into the stock market? Bonds are where everyone hides when the stock market is crashing! So, when the money is done hiding, it goes to the light  the stock market. Why doesn’t it just stay in the bond market? Pure greed! Economics 101 – Supply and Demand. The supply of bonds is limited. When all the cash comes out of the stock market there is too much money chasing too few bonds. Demand is great, supply is fixed, and prices go up. As prices go up, yield or return goes down. It is a fixed relation between bond prices and bond yields. So, when too much money rushes into bonds, i.e. a bear market, the yield/return drops to virtually nothing.

Here’s an example – Have you checked your bank’s money market or CD rates lately? The one year US Government Treasury Bill is paying at +.47%. Not even ½ of 1% for the year! So investors, who got comfortable with the double digit returns in the 80s, cannot even get 4% on a 10 year Government Bond

This means that Grandma and Grandpa who were once living well on interest checks and Social Security are not living well now. The interest income has dried up.

  • So what happens next? Well, when the flow of cash stops going into bonds and starts going into stock, the stock market will go up for the same reason the bond market did – too much money chasing too few stocks. And, actually, it’s already happened overseas …this is the main reason the Prism Grid earned over +36% last year. Yes, through our expert money management, the Prism Grid was up over 36% last year, but not primarily by investing in the USA, mainly by foreign investment.
  • Is it happening in the US now? No, it is not already happening – All through 2009 and even through February of 2010, much more money is flooding into bonds versus stock.

When cash comes out of bonds and into stock, that’s when the fun really starts! Those green “bond” bars are showing $20-50 billion a month going into bonds since January 2009. That, my friends, is enough cash to take the US stock market to absolute new heights. The Dow Jones Industrial average hit it an all time high on October 10, 2007 at 14,165.02. As of Friday, April 16, 2009, it closed at 11,143.66. Just back to its old high is a 27% gain from here. And this exercise is only one of the reasons I believe our return for 2010 will be even more than last year.

I had a review meeting with a client recently. The client was with us when we switched from RPR Clearing to Fidelity, at the same time we started using new portfolio software. So the report generated from May 22, 2002 to April 23, 2010 showed the staring value of $178,990.47 and an ending value of $361,671.76 for an annualized gain of 9.29% per year, with no additions or subtractions. Over a double in under 8 years! The client proceeded to make a large deposit into the account! Should YOU?

To summarize – per Morningstar4

  • Below Average Risk
  • High Return

That is what you are getting with the Prism GridSM Program at Symmetric Advisors, Inc.

Just a reminder – As your money manager, our goal is to provide you the best path to increase your net worth. As a valued client, if you know of any family member or friend who would benefit from meeting with us, please be sure to give them our name and number. We’d be happy to sit down with them to talk about their financial future and how we can help them achieve the same successful results that we’ve been providing to you. As always, thank you for your referrals! Several clients have earned a nice reward for their referrals! George, Clancy, and I would like to say Thanks!

Remember: we pay cash for referrals!

Thanks for your support!

That’s All For Now Folks!

David Thompson
Managing Partner
Symmetric Advisors, Inc.

1 Source: “The Aftermath of Secular Bear Markets” – Morgan Stanley European Strategy 8/10/2009
2 Source: Ibbotson Associates (IA), as of 12/31/2009
4 Morningstar is an unaffiliated corporation whose business is rating all money managers, and providing apples to apples statistics on them, for the public.

Where do we go from here? UP!

As of today, January 21st 2010, the Prism GridSM value is about the same as it was on December 31st 2007! The gain in 2009 and these few weeks in January have virtually erased the losses experienced in 2008.1

To have recovered this quickly is a testament to our lower risk//high return approach in the Prism GridSM that we have practiced since the mid 90’s. We have been in business since March 5, 1991 – this is our 20th year in the business. I would like to think that George and I are like fine wine, we keep getting better with age. Per Morningstar2 statistics, we would have ranked 187th out of 6758 worldwide money managers that are available to US citizens, for five year annualized returns. That places the Prism GridSM, our proprietary management program, in the TOP 3% of all those managers that had a 5 year track record, as of 12/31/2009. The average annual return of those same managers was 3.3%. So, not surprisingly, most people – even those with brokers, financial advisors, or insurance agents that can sell mutual funds, only ever got the average return.

Let’s see how you would have done with SAI versus those “average investors”…

The Average Investor                      The Prism GridSM
12/31/2004                                        $50,000                                           $50,000
The Return per Year for 5 years            +3.3%                                            +9.55%
12/31/2009                                       $58,812.77                                     $78,891.81

Our track record is longer than five years! Let’s see how you would have done against what we use as our benchmark: the Vanguard S&P Fund, for the last decade…

The Vanguard S&P Fund                  The Prism GridSM
12/31/1999                                       $50,000                                           $50,000
The Return per Year for 10 years          -1.03%                                            +3.20%
12/31/2009                                    $45,082.55                                        $66,054.18

Bottom line… we made money, the S&P did not!

Our goal for the Prism GridSM Program is to beat the S&P 500SM by 3 to 5% over a calendar year, while taking 50 to 75% of the risk of the S&P 500SM . We also are very liquid. Standard settlement is three business days to take virtually any Separately Managed Account (SMA) to 100% cash.

Our return for 2009 was +36.09% for the Prism GridSM . And that was not our best year ever. We have had two better years – 1997 @ +38.62% and 1999 @ +38.39%!

To summarize – per Morningstar2

  • Low Risk
  • High Return

That is what you would be getting with the Prism GridSM Program at Symmetric Advisors, Inc. We want to do business with you! Call or email me and we will start the ball rolling. Call us at 952-541-1605 or email us at sai@symmetricadvisors.com . Thanks for your support!

That’s All For Now Folks!

David Thompson
Managing Partner
Symmetric Advisors, Inc.

1 For clients who were in the Prism GridSM 100% of the time and did not take the Conservative cash allocation recess.
2 Morningstar is an unaffiliated corporation whose business is rating all money managers, and providing apples to apples statistics on them, for the public.